Gambling Questions & Answers

Each month I will select a question emailed to me from this page. The winner will receive a month's subscription to my HOT SHEET or $99 credit for an in-office handicapper selection. Early each month I will post the previous month's winning question along with my reply.

This Month's Question

JULY 2008
Swami
When handicapping and analyzing a sports event which variables do you feel are the most important?
Tom Cain,AZ.
Tom your question is a simple question but the response is extremely complex. I believe both confidence and motivation are definitely the two keys to any play. With this said I believe motivation is also often very difficult to perceive from the standpoint of a handicapper or anyone for that matter. I know many coaches in the sporting world I have often discussed this matter with them. Often coaches will feel their team is "ready". A term meaning they have practiced well and are energized (motivated) to give their best effort. However the team goes out and plays very poorly and seems not motivated once the game begins.
When I handicap any event I like to look for a team that has proven it can overachieve. I do not like to ask a team to do something that it hasn't already done. I believe this is a critical statement in handicapping. Let me give you an example. Team A has lost to team B six times in a row. You would obviously say that Team A is motivated to defeat Team B because of this losing string. On paper that may be true but one needs to look closer. Sometimes teams are beaten before the game begins. They do not believe they can win so their chances of winning are greatly decreased. When I am putting money up on a game I like to believe my team believes they can win. This is where confidence comes into my equation.
Confidence needs to be present in all situations that will yield a win. I truly believe that believing that you can do something has a tremendous effect on the actual result of the event. I think we have seen this in many aspects of sport. Example: Tiger Woods when he lines up a putt is not trying to get it close, or worrying about what if I miss this...NO..he is analyzing and visualizing how the putt is going to drop into the hole.
One needs to want it but at the same time must believe he can get it also.
I believe by study and watching a team or an individual you can actually learn to predict this.
Example: Team A is 5-1 and is playing a team that it has beaten Team B 3 of the last 4 seasons but most recently lost to this team by a wide margin. This situation sets up as a possible play for two reasons. The team is a winner so they are performing well and believe they can win because hey have won in the past. Secondly they can defeat their opponent because they have proven to be able to do that also already.
The loss in the previous game SHOULD have Team A focused (motivation) and their previous success should enable them to BELIEVE. How I am not going to tell you I am going to play this game just because of these two variables..NO..but I am telling you I will look closer at this contest because it sets up as a possible situtaion I like. The line on the game is obviously going to be a critical factor as will other facts..but the point I am making for you Mr Cain is how I approach a possible selection and what I think are your key variables to look at before considering a game to wager on. I hope this helps you a little when you do your homework on your future sporting events.
Be well and I look forward to August them I will reply to another of your many interesting questions. You can write me at theswami@aol.com. Relax and enjoy your family this month. Send flowers to your mother for no reason and tell your gal you love her today and everyday. Also do something this weekend you have never done before..Life is too short not to...Donn The Swami Wagner.

JUNE 2008
ASK THE SWAMI
Mr Wagner
I am an elememntary teacher who enjoys handicapping hockey and football. I supplement my income each year by betting on these two sports. I am a small bettor ($50 to $100). I average winning about $3500 a year in hockey and a little less in football. I have followed the handicappers on your site now for almost a year. I believe I can compete with most of them. How do I get a position on your Handicapper's Report Card Line?
Thomas Schmidt, MN
Thomas
If you know you can beat the odds in football and hockey then I think you need to follow these steps.
1. Get monitored by The Sports Monitor Inc. of Oklahoma City or Sports Watch in Vegas. Maybe also one of the internet sites though I have to admit I know little about them.
2. Notify me what name you will be handicapping under. So I can follow your progress. If you have a successful season I will add your name to our waiting list to be activated on The Handicapper's Report Card list.
3. If you are approved you will be asked to sign a contract with us for 2 to 3 years. We will market you and attempt to build your business. It will not cost you a penny. we will split all profits 50-50. You will be paid at the end of each month.
4. You handicap and pick the winners and we will make sure people will hear about you. We have a 200,000 active mailing base that we market to. We only use direct mail at this time. Using the old fashion style of communication still is very effective for us. We have never traded or sold these names so our client base is very elite and solid.
5. Many of our current handicappers have their own preofessional lives and really enjoy the ability to make money through our office yet still have the freedom and privacy we provide for them. AS long as you turn in your plays in a timely fashion and comply with our guidelines you will find being a handicapper on our system can be a rewarding experience.
Call me anytime at 1-800-553-3483 to discuss your potential future. We can monitor your selections also but believe having it done by a professional monitor will aid in your exposure.
Until next time be safe, be well, be a winner.
Donn Wagner





MAY 2008
ASK THE SWAMI
Question of the Month:
Mr Wagner, I am a long time 900 caller. My question is why did you stop posting your DERBY and other horse selections on the 900 system?
I believe 1997 was the last year did it on a regular basis. According to my notes you did a few races since but raely.
RACE TRACK JACK, NY
Jack
Once I began to get into exactas and tri wagering I felt that it was too much information and possibly confusing to sell it on a 900 system. When people call a 900 they want clear instructions and simple. When you give 10 combinations of exacta plays and another 12 tri wagers plus straight plays it becomes too much.
I may go back to simply selling my key horse for a race, but that could result in a problem I would like to avoid. I often make money on my racing card but do not at times hit my key horse as a winner. Some people could believe that I lost money because my key horse runs third yet as in 2004's Preakness I missed but caught my tri options and won a 6 figure return.
Horse racing wagering is complex. Unless one is a horse player one needs to understand the odds and smaller betting strategies. A $1000 sports player should not wager a $1000 on a horse race. In sports we need to hit 55% and up to make a solid profit, but in horse racing 25% is outstanding because the odds are so much better on the return. My average return on a winner is 5 to 1 since 1987 on my TRIPLE CROWN scores.
be well
Donn Wagner

APRIL 2008
ASK THE SWAMI
Question of the Month:
Swami, I am very disappointed you are not doing your Grand Slam baseball program again this season. I do not bet anything but your baseball Grand Slams. I have been with you since 1991. Please reconsider and if not give me some direction on who I should follow this 2008 season?
Frustrated Dr Paul
Doc I am not doing baseball because of two reasons. First I am struggling with my handicapping. I had my worse football ever and basketball has been not much better. It is not that I am losing my feel or energy for gaming. That is certainly not the case. I probably am working as much now as I did 20 years ago and I am still loving it. I have uncovered so many new avenues for handicapping that I believe I am going through a transition phase.
Personally I believe I am going to have excellent football seasons in the future and basketball seasons. If you go back over my 25 plus year history you will see I once in awhile have a dry spell for a year or so. I have always charged back with solid seasons. 2007-2008 for football and basketball combined is my worse since 1996-1997.
I havee so much on the table in these two sports I do not want to stop and do baseball now. I am a driven man at this point in my life.
You may think I would be discouraged after this season-but I am just the opposite. I can not explain it but my energy and interest is very intense. Talk is cheap so time will tell.
The other reason I do not feel compelled to do baseball is the fact that the The Handicapper's Report Card has so many excellent baseball handicappers to select from.
In 2006-2007 once again the stable produce the best results of any in the land in baseball. If I felt in any way I was leaving my loyal clients down I would continue this season with my baseball programs. 90% of my old clients enrolled with the 3 gentlemen I guided them to last year and they all had outstanding winning seasons.
Tom Law of LONGBALL SPORTS is still my choice as the Best baseball handicapper over the last 10 years. Ted Orr of Total Sports Solutions is the best guy to follow early and after The All-Star break I always like Chris Moss of One on One to finish strong.

March 2008
ASK THE SWAMI
Question of the Month:
Mr Wagner I just noticed that your Handicapper's Report Card has the Top 4 basketball handicappers in America. How did you come to be involved in such a concept? M. Goldberg. FL.
Mr. Goldberg the idea was not mine. It really was the other handicappers who comprise the group. A few of them camre to me. Running a sports service may seem like a great idea and an easy way to make money if you are successful...but nothing could be farther from the truth.
Many of the handicappers on THPC are professional people who are winning gamblers but who also have another job and families. The issue of time and energeries becomes an issue.
Most full time jobs require at least 40 to 50 hours of work. Most guys when you include family time do not have an extra 40 hours to spend marketing their service. They may have 20 hours to handicap a week but that is it.
The Hanicapper's Report Card is the pefect match for guys who are winning gamblers/handicappers but who do not have the time or interest in dealing with prospective clients and marketing.
Ted Orr of Total Sports Solutions is a perfect example of this. He tried both and really loves handicapping but finds dealing with clients a huge distraction.
Quoting Ted:
"I do not want to hear my losers cost a client $10,000 last night and now he is stuck and needs me to get him out of the hole. That kind of information really makes me tighten up. I want to do what I love period. That is analyze baseball and other sports. I do not want or need the personal involvemnet with clients. That is why I found Donn Wagner and his concept of The Handicapper's Report Crad so perfect for me.
I handicap and he markets my plays. We split costs down the middle and I am never at risk to lose any money. That is a win/win sitaution.
I trust Wagner to do a good job at what he does and he in turn trusts me to work hard and produce winning results. If we both do our jobs we will both be very satisfied."
Ted's story is just one of many that fit the bill.
Donn Wagner has been in business for over 40 years nobody in the industry has a better mailing list then he does. He markets for many cappers by using his powerful mailing list. The guys who are monitored and are winning make the big bucks with little or no risk.
Sharing the industry with people who work hard and are proven winners makes working with clients very easy. It also offers a flexible situation for clients who are looking for a change for an additional capper to add to their stable. Clients are familiar with Wagner's office and enjoy working with his staff.
February 2008
ASK THE SWAMI
Question of the Month:
Mr Wagner on the 714-228-6200 Victory Line Tape you use to have a schedule for the selections. I would know that say The Z Play was going to release their plays in basketball between Feb 5th thru the 10th. Another capper would be slated to post his plasy over the next five days and so on. This season you have not sent out a schedule and there appears to be no pattern on who is choosen to release a play. Why the change?
Bob Carson AZ
Response:
Bob, The handicappers and I felt if a capper did well for the callers on their 4 to 5 day stay on The Victory Line they would be rewarded by the Victory Line callers with new sign-ups. That did not happen. Last year The Ticket went 10-2 on his plays, Trapp hit 8 of 11, Tom Law in baseball hit 7 straight and 10 of 12 over 3 weeks and in each case each handicapper did not receive anymore thaen the usual new signs up. As a result The Handicapper's Report Card Group asked me not to post a schedule and not to schedule them into a 4 to 6 day span of time.
In 2008 I am randomly selecting capper's plays to post on The Victory Line. I still surprise our listeners with GOY and GOM releases on the tape and it hopefully will still provide positive results.
The Victory Line should not be the only source of a player's action but should be used to supplement his paid services selections.
Since November some of the handicapper's shared their concerns that some of their regular clients stopped buying plays and were just taking the free information. We are monitoring this presently.
We have always been able to have the cappers share their official plays on The Victory Line because they were making such a nice income from all their clients' enrollment. If this slows down certain cappers may not participate in The Victory Line program. Hopefully this will not become an issue and things will continue to be good for the clients and cappers for many seasons to come.



January 2008
ASK THE SWAMI

Question of the Month:
Mr Wagner if you were going to sign up for a handicapper for basketball in January for the rest of the season who would you select? R. H. Reynolds FL.
The Criteria and Thinking One Needs to do Before Selecting a Basketball Handicapper (From now thru the end of March Madness 2007-2008).
by Alleghenies Analysis' Donn Wagner "The Swami"

This was an interesting exercise for me to put myself through. I am asked this question probably a dozen times each sports season. I have to be very politically correct when I respond to a potential client thought who I think they should sign up with. I always try to be fair and honest with each potential client. I never want a handicapper to say that I favor this person or that one. What makes THRC (THE HANDICAPPER'S REPORT CARD) concept work so well for so many clients is that it followers so many excellent opportunities to the public. I certainly never want to upset any member so I must fair and completely objective in my delivery.
First before I selected a handicapper or handicappers I would examine any documented past history that I could. The Sports Monitor Inc. www.thesportsmonitor.com and Sports Watch www.sports-watch.com are the two monitor's I choose back in 1985 to be monitored by and I am still monitored by them 22 years later. I know there several other good ones out there but I have not found them yet.
Since 1999-2000 when we established The Handicapper's Report Card concept we have been also monitoring and daily posting for clients results of the members. Those archives can be examined by going to www.theswami.com and clicking onto our archive section of the web site.
This I am selecting this handicapper today (JAN 08) I want to know several things. First, and most important to me...How many plays does he give out on the average for the week? I do not want to be playing a bunch of plays everyday. If I would get one a day I would be a happy man.
Secondly what is more important, past success or current success? I like both. I want a capper who has proven himself. I would think three seasons of success in a row would be nice to have. However more would be better. If that history is not there at least two winning seasons to back him up would be needed.
Thirdly I like a capper who may be presently having a losing season or one who is fresh off of a poor season. If he has a strong history of previously being a solid winner I am confident he will return to his winning ways. I personally believe a serious handicapper will bounce back off a poor season much more than not. I have seen it time and time again in working with them. I think this scenario also applies to many winning teams and coaches.
If a handicapper is having a losing season and we are in January you may be able to get a great price for his service. Many clients ignore these diamonds in the rough when they are exploring their choices for a capper.
I also like to go with a capper who is sizzling hot. Some years it is simply a capper's year. I love being on someone who is Hot. He is feeling it and it can be contagious to be with him. I think we can reflect back over the years and identify with this scenario.
One thing I have observed over my years being involved with THRC is that both the most success clients are the ones with two or three services. I know at first this may sound crazy but hear me out. When I am investing in the stock market I select two or three advisors. I divide my monies between them and allow them to go to work. I tell them my goals and give them some directions and then I allow them complete freedom.
I am going to do this with my handicapping choices today.
I am going to pick three services and each for a different reason. One because it is HOT and has shown it is a force in the industry. Second I am going with an oldtimer who has along time documented history of being a winner. Thirdly I am going with a capper who is doing all right but not great but I feel he is about to breakout and have a hot run.
My Hot choice is going to be Boston Bob. He is the type of capper who is extremely streaky. Just like 2005-2006 I think he has that magic. You could argue that The Z Play, Total Sports Solution or Tom King of King of the Court were great HOT cappers to follow and you would also be definitely correct.
My old time winner but losing theory choice is going to be myself. I am selecting Donn Wagner's Late Slammers for the next 80 days.Yes these plays are in the negative for this year to date but just slightly. My rationale is this. I have won historically 75% of the $450,000 plus I have with my Slammers during the coming 80 day period of time. I am sending up for the full package because it is the best price.
Finally my third selection is a hunch...I. M. Wright of the WRIGHTSIDE. He is doing extremely well so far and I like his style. He presses if he is winning and backs off if he is losing. I have watched him pick up 6 or 7 units a week. His upside is so much stronger than the down side. If he is having a bad week he passes for 3 to 5 days. If he is on a run he aggressively attacks the card everyday.
Please visit my web site www.theswami.com. You will be impressed with what it has to offer. More importantly you will be able to research past records and make your own decisions about who you want to guide you through these next 80 days on the court for 2008.
The opportunity to win is real. If you have interest in the next 80 days of the 2008 basketball season I honestly believe you will be pleased with whatever your choice will be. If you have any questions please feel free to call the office 1-800-466-1682 and ask to speak to Stevie.
There is never a sure thing when it comes to gambling. However, if one is going to win over the next 80 days I can not think of a better place or chance you will have then to be involved with one of the handicappers from The Handicapper's Report Card for basketball.
Be well, be safe, be a winner....Donn Wagner





December 2007
Will hockey continue once we get into 2008?
Paul M. Montreal
Paul, as you probably know I am not a hockey person. I really still feel uncomfortable with hockey. Since I know little about it, I do not like the fact that I do not have a handle on it.
I believe the hockey handicappers that we have a probably the best around..with that said it takes much more time from our office to assist and keep hockey going. The worst time for us to be administrating hockey is October thru December. You have baseball going strong thru October and then NBA and College hoops kick in during the beginning of November. Believe it or not we have more basketball clients then football. This creates an administration nightmare for us. As long as the clients are happy and the cappers continue to beat the odds we will continue to offer hockey as an option.
I am always evaluating and will never make a full season commitment to hockey until early January. It is possible I will eliminate hockey all together this January even though the interest is growing.
I do not want to offer too much. I feel comfortable with football, basketball and baseball. I do not feel comfortable with hockey. Only because it continues to win is the only reason I am allowing to be part of our program. If the cappers or the season got ugly I would stop it in a minute. I do not want hockey to ruin the success of everything we have going.
The answer to your question Paul is I will evaluate hockey in early January. If I am comfort we will offer full remainder packages for hockey.. If not I will either cancel all hockey or will allow a few to continue only on a monthly basis. The cappers all know if they drop below a negative 25 net units at any time they will be removed from the stable. I have told each this before the 2007-2008 began. All have acknowledged that they understand this. We have many passionate hockey clients however we only have 5% of clients that are not also passionate about at leat one other sport. We have every few new clients who just play hockey. I know we can provide winning information in basketball and baseball and most often in football but hockey I am still watching.
Donn Wagner







November 2007
Why do you not allow monthly sign ups for your hockey handicappers for the month of October?
Paul M. Toronto
Paul
The reason we do this is because when we offered both a monthly program and daily enrollments several years ago we experienced some problems with the monthly sign ups.
1.) 75% of the clients liked the flexibility and freedom the daily signs up permitted.
2.)Several cappers charged $50 for their daily plays and $650 for a month. Two or three of the cappers only released six or seven plays. Clients were not pleased that if they had gone the daily purchasing plan they would have saved money by going the daily route. They felt the cappers should give out more plays since they paid the price they had.
To a void this situation we felt it would be better if we limited enrollment to just the daily sign ups for October. Once an established pattern of the number plays each capper was going to release per month was set the clients could make a more intelligent choice of which capper would meet there needs and style.
Nothing is ever set in stone. If more and more clients wish to do the monthly programs next season we may go back to our initial ways. As always your questions are appreciated.
Donn Wagner

OCTOBER 2007
Swami
You must come across many interesting stats when you do research in college football. Would you share with me a few interesting stats that might assist me in winning some money this college season. I am only a $100 player so you are too expensive for me. With that said I must tell you I have called your FREE TAPE (1-714-228-6200) almost everyday since I learned about it from a buddy at work last October. I have won over $5000 just playing those plays. I bought my girl our engagement ring with that last month. I am hoping to get on another roll and maybe this time join you for baskets.
Paul Mezzer PA
Paul
Here are a few stats I believe might assist you in NCAA action from Oct 1 thru the end of November.
1.) Play Northwestern off a loss..14-6 last 20. For some reason Cats always respond to a challenge.
2.) Rice over every game. Owls like to see the ball in the air and their secondary is extremely weak. Look for many high scores to continue for them in 2007.
3.) Play Oregon in competitively lined games. Ducks are well coached and as a result have performed well when line is -3 to +3 in their contests over the last 43. They are 31-12 against the spread when in these tight lined contests.
4.) Play against Nebraska following a 28-point or more blow-out home victory. Cornhuskers are only 16-32 in this situation.
5.) Play USC under if they allow 14 points or less in two straight games.
Everyone thinks USC is all offense...not the case..In the situation I just mentioned they are 2-15 to the under in recent years.
Be well
6.) Look for USC and Coach Pete Carroll to struggle in his October opener against Stanford. He always seems to not be able to get his squad up for the variables I see occurring on this October 6th affair.
Donn Wagner..THE SWAMI



September 2007
Swami
Will you again me doing your radio shows from Las Vegas on KDWN? I have always found it to be very informative and unique. Living in Vegas, sports gaming shows are a dime a dozen, however your show is definitely a notch or two above most. Hope you will be back in 2007.
The reason I am even asking this question is because I have not seen anything from you that mentions the show will be returning this year. Hope you enjoyed your summer off from baseball and I hope you will have a great football season.
One of your old students from Happy Valley Class of 96 Paul O.,Nevada.

Paul great to hear from you again.
After 13 years on the aire from Las Vegas every Thursday evening I have decided to do something different this season. I am planning to continue doing my shows but only on a monthly basis on my website. This way I can still archive the show for you and my listeners.
Last year we archived every show on my web page also but KDWN had many problems. You can still go back and listen to them now at theswami.com. The way I have done my shows each show they can still be an excellent learning tool for any gambler. 95% of the content on each show applies to every season. Only 5% dealt with predictions for 2006.
My first show will be ready on my web site in September, just before the opening of the NFL regular season and the second full week of college action. Again the content of the show will center around client questions that are e-mailed to me at theswami@aol.com. I am looking forward to another great season on the aire. I will be doing some contests and things that I could not do when it was on KDWN because of federal regulations. Don't miss any of the shows
...BONUS NOTES FROM THE SWAMI FOR 2007 COLLEGE FOOTBALL:
Look for several shockers this season in college football. I.) Notre Dame will not win 8 games 2.)Wisconsin will win the Big 10 3.) Miami Fl will return to the Top 10 4.) Penn State will lose at least 4 games. QB is extremely weak in pressured situations. Will throw more interceptions in RED ZONE then TDs. He is not a quick thinker and this will prove to be his downfall. 5.) My STREAKER will be released Oct 2 2007. Only $99 and it could again be another Rice which won 6 net winners after I released it in 2006-2007.My lifetime mark on my STREAKERS is now (114-58) as I move into 2007 action. Call 1-800-553-3483 and purchase it today.
Donn Wagner


August 2007
Mr Wagner
I am excited about the coming football season. I was with Gilberg last season for college football again and he did another solid job. I am looking to add two more cappers to my portfolio. Could you please give me some direction.
Thanks Bob Levy PA.
Bob
I am asked this many times. I must be truthful with you. In the past at times I have been anxious to give my options on handicappers. It caused he some problems and resulted in us losing sveeral solid handicappers. Some feel I have favorites and I do not do a good job promoting all of them equally. I must be sensitive to this. A great way to evaluate is to go to the archives and write down the records and net results for a couple of cappers you are considering. Campare the number of plays and the net results. This should assist you in your research.
In college Gilberg is obviously the most popular choice. On The Mark has also ben a popular capper for a number of seasons. Last year I. M. Wright had the most new clients at seasons end and so far in early sign ups is fourth behind me, Gilberg and Hajjar. Be sure to call 1-714-228-6200 each day for a FREE selection. Already this season those plays are up over $5500 based upon our ratings of $100 to $300 we are giving. Have a great Fall and let's kick 2007 in the tail.
Donn Wagner
July 2007
Swami, I know you are golfing and relaxing and doing football research all summer but could you please give me a few interesting stats for this year's baseball season thru June 20th.
Karl C., Boalsburg, Pa
Karl here are a few shockers.....
FACT 1:New York Yankess have the worst money wagering mark on road games (-989 on their 15-20 record on road.)
FACT 2:Florida and Washington are the only two teams with an overall losing record yet because they are often underdogs they are still winning money for their followers.
FACT 3:Washington is the road dominator so far..15-20 but an impressive plus $1047 for just a $100 play each road affair.
FACT 4:Six teams have winning records at home yet all six are losers on the moneyline..Yanks 20-14 (-$552)/Minnesota 20-18 (-$679)/Atlanta 19-18 (-$271)/Oakland 21-18 (-$341)/Colorado 20-18 (-$72)/Philadelphia 19-17 (-$$173).
FACT 5: Foe the first time in 15 years not one home team is showing a profit with a losing record at home. In the past 14 years 56 teams have combined for a profit on this date....( Will home dogs start to bark or is this trend going to be stopped. Football Flyer with Early Bird pricing will be mailed out to you July 20th..DON"T MISS IT...I am excited and very well rested for this 2007 campaign..Enjoy the summer!!!!!DW
June 2007
Mr Wagner tell me which pitching record you believe to be the strongest of these two I have listed below for you and why. Also if these two pitchers were facing each other at a neutral site a and the line was a pickem which pitcher would you select to win? Oscar DeA. Iowa.
Pitcher A
IP-H-R-ER-BB-K #
Game1 (H) June 12 5- 7-3-3- 0- 5 62
Game2 (H) June 17 7- 5-2-2- 1- 8 85
Game3 (A) June 22 6- 6-3-3- 1- 6 78
Game4 (A) June 28 9- 7-3-3- 2- 13 116
Game5 (N) July 3
Pitcher B
IP-H-R-ER-BB-K #
Game1 (A) June 10 7- 4-0-0- 4- 10 81
Game2 (A) June 18 5- 5-5-3- 4- 6 78
Game3 (H) June 23 7- 3-1-1- 3- 12 103
Game4 (A) June 28 7- 5-2-2- 2- 10 90
Game5 (N) July 3
Oscar I am not sure what your point is but obviously I do not have enough data to make a call. However with this limited information I will comment on what I may do.
I always rate each pitcher's performance. When I calibred these efforts I have Pitcher B coming out on top with a 5 point advantage.
Oscar, in studying the stats you have provided me I notice that Pitcher B had his worse outing when he had 7 days rest. Often this pattern happens when you are dealing with a power pitcher. They are said to be too strong and they often over-throw and are wild.
Pitcher A is coming off an excellent outing however because he threw 116 pitches, which also was 31 more than any other game, he may be not as sharp. One of the strongest aspects of his game is his excellent walk-strike out ratio.
Just based upon the stats I am shown Oscar I would lean to pitcher B. He has thrown two excellent starts away from home. Despite some control issues his control appears to be sharpening.
Until July be well and enjoy the wonderful weather...Only a few weeks and football will be here.


May 2007
Question 1: Dear Swami, I have enjoyed signing up for your Horse Racing Packages the last several years. I started out just getting your Travers pick in 2003 and have been a regular ever since. My question is Why don't you do more races? I am sure you could make a ton of money being a regular horse handicapper. From what I have seen so far you are a notch above most. D. Holderman, NY.
Answer 1: Mr Holderman, I will address this issue in a future publication. I really believe it is extremely difficult to handicapper horse racing on a daily basis unless you are physically at the track everyday. So much happens at the track each and every day that the racing form just doesn't show you. Being at the track and handicapping every day gives you such a huge advantage. I do not live near a major track so this is an impossible situation for me. Also to be honest I am a sports guy. I love all sports but am not the die-hard horse fan. I like the "showy races, because the more notable horses are running. I am a class handicapper. I really have a feel for the better horses. I prefer races that are a mile or longer also. I honestly struggle with nags and speed races. This past March after being in Vegas for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 I went out to Phoenix, AZ with Tom Law and Jimmy Rodgers. We went to a nice small track called Paradise . I took the collar in nine races...but I knew I was in trouble when I went there.(Ha Ha !!!)
BE WELL/BE SAFE/BE A WINNER: Donn Wagner..THE SWAMI

April 2007
I received your baseball flyer a few days ago and I must tell you I was shocked and extremely disappointed to read about you not doing baseball in 2007. I have subscribed to both your Grandslams and regular baseball program (Alleghenies Analysis) for 8 straight seasons. I am also a basketball client for your Late Salmmers since 2001 and have been with you in football for your complete program since 1998. I have not used another capper until now. I know you must have your reasons to take this summer off and I respect that,but in the same light you have left me out on a limb. I am a player and need direction. I am not going to take this summer off. Please give me direction..you owe it to us loyal followers of your services.
Frustrated Fred M. (ILL)
Fred
You are not alone. It is great clients like you that have motivated to continue with baseball in the past when I wanted a break and felt I needed to relax. Handicapping baseball is very rewarding however in my opinon it is alo the most demanding. Often I will spend (10 to 12 hours) of research and data analysis each day. One needs to do this if he consisently hopes to master this very stat orientated sport.
I am 63 years old now and I am into the mid to later innings and I feel I deserve the opportunity to miss one rotation. Their are many solid good arms waiting to fill my shoes for 2007.
The obvious choice would be my son..Stevie Z, who I love and repect a great deal as a man and as a handicapper. However I am going to point you towards Hardball Technology and The Ticket. Steve and Carmen are both players with sharp minds. They both have shown the ability to win and win big in baseball. They also have demonstrated the patience to recover from slow starts. I have never seen them pushed the panic button. They are solid baseball cappers who seem to enjoy what they do.
If I had a third choice it would definitely be Tom Law of LONGBALL SPORTS. He is definitely one of the smartest handicappers I know. He has an IQ of over 160. He knows a great deal about many things and one of the those things just happens to be baseball.
I did not put him first, because in the summer he enjoys traveling all around the world. He is a computer guy so he can pull that off and never seems to miss a beat.
Last but certainly not least I believe the best buy for your money is the Louisville Slugger. He is offering his complete season for less than $1000 and he has won over 4350,000 on the diamond all documented by The Sports Monitor Inc of Okla City and his many loyal followers. I know you will be pleased with your 2007 baseball season if you select this old veteran.
Maybe next year you will be putting me in the bullpen after you experience this season. Either way you will have another solid season on the diamond..I just know it.
Be well
Donn Wagner

March 2007
Mr Wagner
I know it is the heart of basketball season, but my question is an important one and I hope you address it. Baseball will be starting in less than 6 weeks (Less than one week now). Is it better to sign up with three historically solid cappers at the start of the season, or buy daily plays? I have done both and have had winning success doing both, but feel I need to get your insight into this area. I have had a few guys disappoint me but I must say overall the group of handicappers you are involved with are superior to any I have ever found.
Presently I signed up in basketball with Doc Westwood, Boston Bob and your Late Slammers. I enrolled with you and Doc Westwood in November and added Boston Bob to my list in mid December. I think he was 10-3 when I decided to pull the trigger and add him as my third. I have been extremely pleased with you and Doc. BB has been disappointing however the season is still not over. I like having three sources to select from because I know everyone can can have an off season. The chances of all three busting out are huge and by selecting experienced winners as my three choices I believe I have an excellent chance of winning.
Every once in a while you have a new capper who has an amazing season and I usually always miss that. I am thinking of slecting just one capper for baseball for the season and trying one for a month and doing a daily IN-Office thing for my third option in baseball. Does this strategy seem sound or am I missing something? Howie T. CA
Howie, you are very fortunate you can afford to send the money up front for three cappers. Your strategy is an excellent one and probably 50% of my clients apply it to at least one or two sports every season. With that said your new proposal is also very sound. You select the one capper you believe to be your most solid choice as your full season capper and make a monthly choice probably on your second choice, or on a capper who usually jumps out strong early and then a daily choice based upon who is HOT and or who has a big play that has done well on his or her Top calls. The second plan allows for more flexibilty. That often can be a good thing. However with flexibility comes more daily decsions and with that can come frustration. I daily see clients who jump on and off cappers like they are rabbits. Some do well and some not so well. Patience is such a virgue. Making a choice and sticking with it is easy when you have a winning season right from the start. However when a capper struggles for several months and continues to lose not all clients have the staying power to ride out the poor run. The main reason for this is lack of money and patience. Often clients will play too hard early and will not sit back and invest in a capper like they would a blue-chip stock.
My strategy is always take your time and do your research at the beginning. Evaluate and explore your options. Then make a decision and stick with it. Set aside a certain amount of money for each handicapper. Let's say $20,000. Play $500 a play and be consistent. If your capper rates his plays then play $300 on a regular and $600 on a top.That way you will never be playing more than 3 percentage of your bankroll on any one play from that capper. Also note if your capper releases more than 3 plays a day be careful not to risk ever more than .075% of your bankroll for that handicapper on any one day. If you double your bankroll at some point in the season pull 1/3 off the table. If you lose half your bankroll cut your bets back 1/2 until you get back to your inital investment when you started with the capper. Never stop following him. Keep yourself in action.
The biggest reason our clients do not make money if they enroll in a program is not because the capper has a losing season, it is because they play too much on their plays based upon their bankrolls and run out of money or end up playing scared. Either method will result in not maxing out their win potential.
When I invest in the stock market or sports I apply the same methodology. I invest say $20,000 with three diffferent stocks. I set at goal to reach with each stock. Say $34,000. When I release that value I take half off the table. I put $17,000 away in the bank at 5% interest or so. If a stock releases $7000 I sell 1/2 and put the $3500 in the bank at 5% interest or so and continue to play. I never stop until the season is over. Using this strategy I have been very fortunate to win with both ends. The secret is not to second guess yourself. If you are a positive thinker this style works well. If you are a negative person forget it this will drive you wild. You will always be second guess yourself. In closing I would like to say I personally have been blessed to have the world's nicest and most thoughtful clients. Yes once in a while I will receive a nasty e-mail about something that has happened but 99% of the time my clients are patient and considerate. That is why I still answer the phones when I am in the office and why I still enjoy handicapping and working with people. The handicappers I work with are another story..but I will not go into that..be well and have a great season.

February 2007
Swami
What happened with Pinnacle? Bob J, NY.
Bob, Like most of you I was shocked to discover when I went to my Pinnacle account on Thursday, January 11th, that they were withdrawing from the USA sports gaming market. I knew they might be forced to do this later in the summer but never thought they would before The Super Bowl and March Madness. I still know nothing more than I did on that day.
They were and still are the best book in the world. I would never have given my thumbs up to them unless I knew how wonderful they were. We never had one single complaint from a client. They have the best odds and best service in the industry, bar none. They took everything from $1,000,000 to a $1 bet. The 104 odds in NFL and 105 in baskets and NFL totals blew away all competitors. They have a huge international market and still have millions of clients from around the world. Unfortunately this list now excludes the US.
The US Government’s influence is undoubtedly the reason Pinnacle shut their doors to the US market. I can only image that the government caught Pinnacle with their hand in the cookie jar somewhere along the way. You have to give the government some credit; they have started at the top of the online gaming food chain. They took down the biggest of the bigs and now they feel the rest will follow.
As a lifetime player I have to admit, I am very depressed over the whole situation. I find myself going to my computer and trying to log on to Pinnacle and then realize this freedom has been stripped from me. I am frustrated even more knowing all of the new casinos and river front gaiming parlors that are springing up each day all over the country. Unfair? You bet....
I know personally my quality of life has been effected by my government and I am not really sure why? I am one of many who enjoy handicapping sporting events, looking for the angles and putting a few dollars on these games. When I won, I would always claim my winnings when it came to tax time. I know I am probably in the minority in this situation and this might be the real reason this is all taking place. Maybe, as I suggested on my radio show several months ago, the USA has a master plan. Hopefully they have a plan in place that would repeal the Wire Act and allow for US citizens to place wagers in Nevada from the other 49 states using the Internet and phone lines. In my opinion this would make complete sense. There are over 25 million gamblers in the USA you can bet on it that they will find a way to get down. The amount of tax revenue our government would gather from this would be staggering. The question is how and will it be regulated.
Who knows, in the long run, Canada maybe be the answer?
Everyone is asking why is the US Government doing this? In my opinion they simply are saying, if we can't have a piece of the action, nor can you. It seems that if they can get their cut they don’t really care who gets hurt. Look at some of the states that make millions on one of the largest nationwide problems… alchahol. Why is that accepted and sports gaming not? Intelectually I honestly do not know how to answer that question. I guess it’s BACK TO THE STAMP ACT. Maybe we can have our own BOSTON TEA PARTY soon. If that happens please don’t forget to send me an invitation.
How about you? Until next time be safe, be well, be a winner. -The Swami.


January 2007
Mr. Wagner
January is when conference play really gets going in college basketball. What factors do you look at when you are evaluating your potential selections? James Bere MI.
James, teams play conference games much differently than they do pre-conference games. The intensity and emotion are much more visible in these contests. Many teams will loaded their November-December schedules with soft opponents and will play 80% of their games at home. Often teams with 10-2 records are foolers. They will get exposed very quickly once the REAL ACTION begins. I like to try to identify a few of these FOOLERS and play against them on the road early in conference action. It can be a little tricky doing this because the linesmaker usually really gives the home court a big push in early conference games in January. They know what I know so often a line where you may feel it should be 7 will be 10.5. It can be tough to still play your strategy on your teams when they push the line so strongly. Play less but still commit to your plan.
Happy New Year and may 2007 be your best ever.
Donn Wagner

December 2006
Mr Wagner
Once again you made money on your College Football Streakers with your outstanding call on Rice after they were 1-4 for the season. It is extremely impressive when a team wins 5 straight contests straight up when they are an underdog. If I didn't listen to your radio show on the early October morning I would never have believed it. Continuing with this thought will you be releasing any college basketball streakers this season. In the past I have paid something like $95 for 1 to 3 teams. I have made money using your strategy every basketball season that I have bought your STREAKERS. When will you sell your 2006-2007 STREAKERS?
H. Crain Ohio
Mr Crain I will not be releasing my STREAKERS until January 16th for this season. The price will be $99 and I will have probably two college teams to play against. Call 1-800-553-3483 and send your $99 in so you can receive my two plays on the 9th. Personal check for you and any old timers. First timers will need to submit a cashiers check. Credit cards are also fine.
The big advantage to my STREAKER PROGRAM is that you can win 4 or 5 net winners per STREAKER but you will only ever lose 2 units plus juice. The up side is so sweet and the down side is limited, which really helps control the gambler's insights.
Happy Holidays
DW



November 2006
Swami
Do college football coaches know what the pointspreads are and if so how does that effect how they coach their games? Tim Wakeland PA.
Tim, today pointspread information is everywhere..so what do you think? Yes, of course coaches know if they are a 6-point favorite or a 25-point underdog. Back in the 60's or 70's pointspread information was banded from local newspapers in 95% of the towns and cities. I believe the USA TODAY really started exposing the average USA community to Football lines and odds in the published media. The New York Daily News always had the odds printed in it as far back as 1969, but most newspapers did not.
I know for a fact coaches will use pointspread margins as a motivating tool. Several years ago Boise St. was undefeated but still a double-digit underdog to Louisville. Coach Dan Hawkins used that public knowledge as one of his motivating talks to his young Broncos. "Nobody is giving us a chance in this game. The public believes we are going to lose by double-digits to this Louisville bunch! What are we going to do about it? We are going to win and we are going to show everyone what Boise State football is all about!" Editor's Note: Boise State didn't win but they covered and played an inspired game in their 44-40 defeat to the once beaten Louisville Cardinals.
Penn State Coach Joe Paterno has been very out spoken over the years against gambling in college athletics. He once made reference to the football betting line in the early 90's at a press conference before a Pitt-Penn State football game. In an interview he made reference to the fact that he didn't like the fact odds were posted on college games. He said he didn't want his Nittany Lions beating the big spreads. "I do not want some bookmaker making money off my team. I never want my alumni or fans betting on Penn State!" Editor's Note: Often Penn State in the 80's and 90's when they played a number of teams where PSU was a 20 to 30 point favorite the Nittany Lions would not cover the spread. Joe has for a long time been noted not to run the score up on weaker opponents. If his team would be in control late in the 3rd or early fourth quarter, Coach Paterno would play his 2nd and 3rd strings. He would even go as far as to tell the QB he could not throw a pass. Once he removed a 2nd string QB for throwing a pass when he instructed him not to. Coach Paterno never wanted to embarrass his opponent. At the same time Paterno was hold the ranges on his talented squads other coaches at major universities were pouring it on their weaker opponents. Coaches at Nebraska, Miami, FL and Oklahoma were winning games by 50 or more points.
Once when Bear Byrant was coaching his Crimson Tide, his Bama boys were leading by 34 points in the final minute. Bear called 3 times outs in his final drive as his Bama team scored late to win 41-0. Interesting note on the game was the line was Bama 37. Do you think Bear knew what the line was? Or was the Bear just trying to impress the polls?
Today if we go back and review some of the decisions made by college coaches late in games a few eyes may be lifted. I personally can site 10 games I know a coach made a decision that effected a point spread of a game that the straight-up outcome was not effected but the pointspread was definitely changed. In the 70's I knew a big bookmaker who actually took certain teams off the board when they were playing in a game that involved a high line. I asked him once why and he told me "Swami, I just don't trust this %#%#$%%)(..I have seen too much in my years not to know what is going on. What was going on?...that is another story and I am not the man to tell it...
Final Note: Check out the final 3 minutes of this past season's Ohio State vs Cincinnati game. The final score was 37-7 and the line was Ohio State 28.5. Read about how OSU scored in the final minutes...Fact or Fiction coaches know what the line is? I will never tell...be well back in December with another answer to your questions. DW


October 2006
Swami
Last year you suffered a rare losing post season with your Grand Slam Club plays. Does having a losing October in 2005 effect your confidence level as we approach 2006 Playoff action?
Damon T. AZ
Interesting question! I would think anytime someone is use to doing something very well and they fall short of expectations and they do poorly in whatever area, they would be concerned. If I was a plumber or some other occupation where my experience and talents would guarantee me success each time I did a job I would say no for the most part. However since we are dealing with an area where I do not have complete control over the final product my response is maybe.
I am very determined and focussed on this season's 2006 baseball playoffs because of the disappointing post season I had last year. I have a very large client base for baseball and for the playoffs it always increases another 25%. Many people are counting on me to do well. If I would have another poor performance in the playoffs this season then maybe my confidence in the way I analyze data will be challenged a little.
When you have handicapped as long as I have (over 35 years) my confidence is pretty hard to shake on just one season's poor performance. I am not a cocky person but I am a confident one. I am always reevaluating and trying to make my product (My predictions) better. As I approach 2006s playoffs my strategy and foundation for my baseball selections will be the same as it has been for the past 10 seasons. Despite my losing effort in the 2006 Playoffs my overall baseball success continued last year and again in 2007. My last 8 years in the playoffs including last season's down year still is over 70% winners.
One final note: If the playoffs would run for say 6 months and I did poorly for this extended period of time I believe there would be a most greater chance my confidence for this season would be a little in question. Because the playoffs last only a month I believe there was not enough time for the results of 2006 to really make any impact into my personal "psyche." Let's play ball and have a great Playoff 2006 together.

September 2006
Swami
I heard you on ESPN radio talking about rookie pitcher fatigue. I missed the last part of the show because I had a meeting to attend. Can you post on your website the 5 pitchers you felt would struggle the last part of the season because of their lack of arm strength. Thanks I love your Vegas Radio Show in the fall. Will it be on the same time this year? Dr Don Marks Pitsburgh, Pa.
Dr Marks
The fatigue factor as I discussed will be impacting on a number of current rookie performers. However I believe Weaver, Verlander, Sanchez, Loewen and Bailey* (*Bailey could be called up to the majors any day by the Reds) will be the 5 rookie performers most effected by the large number of innings they will be asked to pitch during the final month of the season. Play against each of these 5 performers and play the overs in each game they pitch. If you lose twice in a row by going against them straight stop following that pitcher. Wager 1 unit vs each pitcher and a 1/2 unit on the totals to go over. I will be shocked if you do not make a profit following this simple plan. I have moved my radio show to 11:00PM PAC COAST TIME on Friday's from 8:30 PAC on Thursday. 1st show will aire September 8th at 11pm PAC. It will also be archived on KDWN by 8:30 EST for your listening enjoyment Friday's. KDWN is hosting my show for the 12th straight season. It was again voted one of the top 1/2 shows on KDWN for the 5th season. Any questions call us at 1-800-553-3483.
August 2006
Mr Wagner
Over the last 10 years if I would I played all your football plays how much money would I have made? I am interested in a package deal for your complete program, but it is so expensive. I am just a $300 player. How large of a bankroll should I have if I become a client of your Alleghenies Analysis plays or the Complete Package. PS Thanks for the official daily play on your 800 line (1-800-679-4445) and the scrollers. I have played most of them over the last few months and that is why I maybe able to afford joining you. Carl P CA
Carl
We are offering a special deal for all clients from now thru August 10th for my COMPLETE FOOTBALL PACKAGE..$1500..down from last season's $3000 Special. If you are interested in just my Alleghenies Analysis plays the special is only $995 reg $2000.
Your bankroll should be at least $12,000 in my opinion if you are playing $300 a game using all 3 of my programs. The biggest mistake people make when they join any service is that they play too much of their bankroll of each game. If they have a slow start they could ruin any chances of success because of the poor start. Slow and steady is a good motto for football. We all get very excited at the beginning of the season and it is very common for gamblers to wager far too much of their bankroll on the games. Rarely should you ever play more than 3% of your bankroll on any one game. I can hear you saying ..But Swami that would be just a small wager I could never win any money....right?..well in the same sense..you will be protecting your investment and increasing the chances of allowing your handicapper to win for you over the LONG season. It is a 2 mile race but a 100 yard sprinit...be well and have a successful season..The answer to your question is $158,000 for a $1000 player.
Donn Wagner

July 2006
Swami,
Which of these totals is best for the sports investor to play? Tigers over 10+115 or Tigers over 9.5 -106(Pinnacle gives you the option). Is it always best to take the lower total, or does it even matter over the long run? Thanks,Mike P.
Mike: I always use the philosphy that I wamt to keep the money from leaving my pocket. I play not to lose. Sometimes that gets you into trouble however I feel in the example you have presented to me today I am making the smart play. If I play the +115 over 10 and it falls at 10, no money will leave my pocket if it falls on 10..so I would play the 10 +115. If we had a total under 8 minus 106 or under 7.5 plus 115 I would play the under 8 because if I played the 7.5 and it hit 8 money would leave my pocket. I feel this defensive style of gaming is the best plan to take if you have options. It is based upon common sense and no involved studies.
Donn Wagner..The Swami
Using my suggested style below are 4 examples: See if you make the suggested Swami Move...
Option 1: Over 12 plus 115 or Over 11.5 minus 106.
Option 2: Over 9.5 minus 108 or Over 10 plus 117.
Option 3: Under 9 plus 108 110 or Under 9.5 plus 113.
Option 4: Under 7.5 plus 106 or Under 8 minus 115.
Check your choices with The Swami's Option Calls below.....

scroll down






Option 1: over 12
Option 2: over 10
Option 3: under 9
Option 4 under 8


June 2006
Mr. Wagner
So far this season I am hearing the squares and the wise guys are both struggling in baseball. However I notice many of The Handicapper's Report Card handicappers are again doing well. How do you explain this? Paul Bauer New Mexico.
Paul
A few of the most consistent handicappers over the past 5 to 10 years that are involved with us are also struggling. As I put this response up Tom Law, The Big Play Club, The Killer Move, Hardball Tech and Total Pleasure are all struggling. Each season brings a few surprises and is challenging. Only two months have past and there are still 5 solid months ahead of us. This is plenty of time for any sharp baseball mind to make a few adjustments and emerge in the plus column at season's end.
Yes, many of the cappers are doing well again this season. My son for one is having one of his best seasons (The Z. Play). I asked him your question and he responded by saying, " I have no idea what other people look at when they handicap baseball. I watch as many games as I can and make my own observations. Being once a pitcher myself I feel I can note things the average observer can't. Several pitcher's mechanics were off early and I was able to capitalize on this. If you watch these guys every year you can really notice certain things. Why? are some struggling? Probably because they are losing the close games and laying too much wood of the money line. I personally would think the squares would be winning this season because it seems to me a lot of favorites and overs have won in April and May. Each handicapper is his own person. Winners pick winners and losers find ways to lose. That has always been my take on handicapping. My Dad taught me a long time ago to do my thing and ignore what everyone else is doing. If I do my work and keeping my mind open to change I will continue to evolve as a handicapper. Handicapping is ever changing and it can never be thought of as an absolute thing. When you stop searching for new ways to improve you start losing any edge you have had in the past.


May 2006
Mr Wagner
My Dad use to play the baseball run line 1.5/2. I can recall when he would do this. Are there any handicappers out there that still look at these situations? Also what is the advantage of playing a run line compared to the money line?
Henry J H.
Jasksonville, FL
Henry I am going to turn this question over to one of the Pinnacle Sports Experts I know (Simon Noble). Here is his response to the second half of your question.

Simon Noble

With Major League Baseball in full swing, there are many wagering options
available to the savvy player. One that is often overlooked is the run
line bet, which is the MLB equivalent of an NFL 1.5 point spread. While
nearly every player, professional or otherwise knows what the ‘3’ in the
NFL is worth, far fewer understand the value of the ‘1.5’ in baseball.

Consider a typical match-up between Boston and Tampa Bay, which may look
something like this:

Team Run Line Moneyline Total
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +1.5 -101 +202 OVER 10 -107
Boston Red Sox -1.5 -109 -220 UNDER 10 -103

An unsophisticated bettor might jump on Boston -1.5 (-109). His reasoning
is simple, Boston is a good team and I’d rather lay -109 than -220 on the
game.

A more knowledgeable bettor would realize that Boston is a public team and
that the public likes playing the favorite on the run line to ‘save
juice’. Following the age old adage ‘fade the public’, he can blindly play
these types of match-ups – the underdogs on the run line against public
teams – and possibly grind out a small profit.

An educated bettor would also know that only Pinnacle Sportsbook offers a
10-cent run line that offers up to 50% better value than the
industry-standard 20-cent run line. By making run line plays at Pinnacle
Sportsbetting, the smarter player will almost always get the best price.

The most informed sharp and professional players will not only look for
the value of the reduced juice lines at Pinnacle Sports, but will apply an
additional level of analysis. Using the same type of research done for NFL
point spreads, these professionals know what the spread is worth in MLB.
First, they look at the market price to see what it ‘suggests’ that 1.5
runs is worth.

A sharp player will convert the game moneyline and run line to a
percentage chance of winning. In this match-up, the no-vig moneyline for
Boston is (-220-202)/2 = -422/2 = -212. This suggests Boston will win
(212/312) * 100 or 67.9% of the time.

Similarly, the no-vig run line price is -105 for Boston which is again
calculated as (-109-101)/2 = -210/2 = -105. This suggests that the wager
Boston -1.5 on the run line will win (105/205) * 100 = 51.2% of the time.

The market ‘believes’ Tampa Bay will lose by exactly 1 run 16.7% of the
time (67.9-51.2). The sharp player knows that in the AL, large favorites
with totals in that range have won by exactly 1 about 18% of the time over
the past 8 years. When the market price and historical price differ, it
suggests that either the Tampa Bay run line (+1.5 -101), Boston moneyline
(-220) or both have value. A 1% error isn’t enough to make a professional
pull the trigger on a play, but it’s a starting point in their analysis.

How often does a run line favorite win by exactly one run? This is
actually a very complicated question that every sportsbook posting early
openers must address. Pinnacle Sports book uses a simple conversion chart
that uses the moneyline and the game total to give a run line price. While
not perfect, it gets us fairly close to the right price (and sharp players
betting overnight lines get it in shape for us relatively inexpensively).

The most important factor for determining a fair price on a run line is
whether the home team is favored and the visitor is getting +1.5 runs.
Home teams win several more 1-run games than visiting teams. The reason
for this is simply that games end anytime the home team has a lead
entering the bottom of the ninth inning.

If the game is tied at the end of 9 innings, there’s only a 7% chance the
home team will win by more than 1 run. On the other hand, a visiting team
that scores 1 run will usually attempt to continue scoring to build up a
cushion. This one difference makes a huge difference in pricing – all
told, home teams win 1-run games about 17% of the time, while the visitors
manage to win by 1-run just 11% of the time.

Another important factor when pricing a run line is the game total. The
lower the total, the more likely a game will end as a 1-run game for the
favorite. While a game total in no way guarantees that many runs will be
scored, it’s a pretty good indicator of how much offense there will be in
a game.

For example a contest between strong pitching teams may have a game total
of 7 runs. Assuming the home team wins and only 7 runs are scored, there
are only four possible scores: 4-3; 5-2; 6-1 and 7-0. On the other hand,
if 11 runs are scored, there are six possible winning scores for the home
team: 11-0; 10-1; 9-2; 8-3; 7-4 and 6-5 – there are 50% more ways for the
home team to win. Oddly enough, these lower-totaled games see home teams
win by 1 run nearly 50% more often than games with totals above 11.

Another vital factor to consider is how heavily a team is favored. Teams
that are heavily favored are more likely to win by exactly 1 than a team
closer to Pick’em. This is almost counter-intuitive because one expects
good teams to blow out weaker teams. On the flip-side, a team has to win
the game before it can win by exactly one. The numbers don’t lie and there
is more value playing the run line against large favorites.

To get an edge against the linesmakers at sportsbooks, you should also
take a look at the relief pitching for both teams. If the game is close
after 5-6 innings, the bullpens will come in to play, making +1.5 runs
more valuable. Similarly, laying 1.5 runs, you’d want the opposing team to
have a weak pen. Understanding this angle can give you a winning edge,
especially against opening numbers.

This column hopefully gave you a better understanding of what goes into
making a run line. You can ‘wing it’ based on ‘feel’ and set a number
subjectively by considering the factors mentioned in this column. Or you
can do some data crunching to create your own run line conversion chart. A
diligent programmer with some experience in data mining could tackle this
in a reasonable amount of time. The information is readily available on
the Internet to create this, or solve nearly any numbers problem in MLB
betting.

A point worth remembering is that successful handicappers usually have
some skill at this and most groups of professional bettors have at least
one ‘number cruncher’ among them who didn’t muck around at the back of the
class and paid attention in school during math lessons.



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April 2006
Part 1
Mr Wagner, my wife asked be tonight if she could place a wager on who was going to win the TV Show "American Idol." I told her I would ask you. So I am.
Peter Lang
PA
Peter yes you can. I am going to print of before for you some comments from one of the people at Pinnacle who is incharge of gaming and odds.
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble

For this weeks Pulse, let’s switch gears and take a look at a recent
phenomenon in online gaming that’s created a buzz on the forums and
generated tremendous betting interest at the Pinnacle Sportsbook –
American Idol.

No other “event” at Pinnacle Sports has been growing as fast as wagering
on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably
high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. At
the Pinnacle Sports book, the action on this year’s series has increased
five fold over the last installment of the hit show and now compares to
the Masters in terms of handle.

Since becoming the first bookmaker in the world to offer odds on the show,
Pinnacle Sportsbetting has tried to support this growth in wagering
interest by expanding Idol betting offers. Every week there are now odds
to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus
contestant match-ups.

Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or only watching because of your
wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting
American Idol.

Odds to Win

There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet.
First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make
the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week.
This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is
less than what it should be.

All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you
should always look for value. In this year’s competition alone, two
performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were
subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After
just a few weeks, Tucker has already been eliminated, while Young is now a
huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search. A better strategy
is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the
judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.

Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is
the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential
future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided
on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the
guiding influence of the shows producers.

Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal
opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting
public. Even if you think Elliott would look more at home at a Star Trek
convention than in a contest for a major recording contract, remember that
the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.

If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much
talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor
and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every
Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.

Elimination Props

Every week Pinnacle Sports betting offers a prop on who’ll be eliminated
from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to
gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the
competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared
in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism
from the judges.

Two other resources to use are dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com.
Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While
by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is
generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site
that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in
the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track
record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted
off a long time ago.

Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups

The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close
either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected
to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost
always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near
future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.


This Weeks Idol Betting

Odds to Win American Idol
Chris Daughtry +161
Katharine McPhee +314
Taylor Hicks +420
Kellie Pickler +700
Mandisa +909
Elliott Yamin +2000
Paris Bennett +2000
Ace Young +6000
Bucky Covington +15000


Who will be eliminated on April 5, 2006?
Bucky Covington +284
Elliot Yamin +310
Ace Young +311
Mandisa +351
Paris Bennett +786
Katharine McPhee +3320
Taylor Hicks +5000
Kellie Pickler +6000
Chris Daughtry +8000

Since last week’s show, at Pinnacle Sports most of the money has come in
on two contestants: Taylor Hicks and Kellie Pickler. Taylor’s odds have
steadily shortened from a high of over 5/1 a week ago to 21/5 (+420) to
become the fifth American Idol. Not only is she votefortheworst.com’s pick
this week, but Kellie Pickler has also seen a rush of money as well and
has gone from a little over 11/1 down to 7/1 to win the show.

In the match-ups, Elliot Yamin has drawn steady support this week,
especially versus Ace Young, while Taylor Hicks has been bet heavily
against both Mandisa and current favorite Chris Daughtry.



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on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and
online poker.

With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet
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The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now
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April 2006
Part 2
Swami, What are the odds to win the world series this year at Pinnacle? I do not have an account there yet but I plan to open one this week.
Bob L MS.
Bob, here are the odds that Pinnacle are putting up for this season. Don't forget to call 1-800-679-44445 for a daily menu and official baseball play this season.

2006 Major League Baseball season with the boys of summer returning for
the sport’s 137th season. With the first pitch of the baseball season
coming this weekend, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds to
win the 2006 World Series.

The Internet’s largest sports betting site, PinnacleSports.com originally
opened wagering on the 2006 World Series immediately following after the
Chicago White Sox clinching victory in October’s that clinched the Fall
Classic for the Chicago White Sox. At that time, the New York Yankees
opened as a 5/1 favorite to win their 27th World Series title, but after
receiving the most support from bettors, the Yankees’ championship odds
have been cut to 3/1. It appears that another Subway Series could be in
the making, as the oddsmakers believe in the revamped New York Mets who
are listed with the second-best World Series odds at 7/1. The reigning
World Series Champion Chicago White Sox are currently 8/1 to repeat along
with the St. Louis Cardinals, who hope to break-in New Busch Stadium with
a World Championship. Other teams that could make a title run in October
include: Oakland Athletics (13/1), Boston Red Sox (13/1), Atlanta Braves
(15/1), Los Angeles Angels (18/1) and Toronto Blue Jays (18/1).

The odds on the Chicago Cubs ending the franchise’s 98-year World Series
drought are listed at 19/1 while the Cleveland Indians are 20/1 to win
their first championship since 1948. PinnacleSports.com lists the Los
Angeles Dodgers at 21/1 to capture the team’s seventh World Series and the
Barry Bonds-led San Francisco Giants are 26/1 to win the championship.
While they may enter the season with the same record as every other team,
the oddsmakers feel a number of franchises have little to no chance of
winning the World Series. PinnacleSports.com lists championship odds of
the Florida Marlins, Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Devil Rays as 200/1
underdogs, while the Kansas City Royals have been installed as the biggest
long shots at 600/1.

In addition to offering betting on who’ll win the World Series,
PinnacleSports.com also offers odds on each Major League team winning
their League Pennant as well as their respective Division. Bettors can
also wager on a wide variety of player props and match-ups including
batting average, home runs, hits, stolen bases, strike outs and saves
among others. Additionally, PinnacleSports.com provides a unique Division
“Superfecta”, where players can strike it rich by predicting the correct
order of the top four finishers in any division with odds of up to
2,000/1.
Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*

Odds To Win World Series From PinnacleSports.com
New York Yankees 3/1
New York Mets 7/1
St. Louis Cardinals 8/1
Chicago White Sox 8/1
Oakland Athletics 13/1
Boston Red Sox 13/1
Atlanta Braves 15/1
Los Angeles Angels 18/1
Toronto Blue Jays 18/1
Chicago Cubs 19/1
Cleveland Indians 20/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 21/1
San Francisco Giants 26/1
Houston Astros 38/1
Texas Rangers 41/1
Philadelphia Phillies 44/1
Milwaukee Brewers 48/1
Minnesota Twins 52/1
San Diego Padres 59/1
Seattle Mariners 86/1
Cincinnati Reds 100/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 100/1
Detroit Tigers 100/1
Baltimore Orioles 125/1
Washington Nationals 125/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 150/1
Colorado Rockies 200/1
Florida Marlins 200/1
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 200/1
Kansas City Royals 600/1

For a complete list of baseball odds, please visit pinnaclesports via our website by just clicking onto the Pinnacle ad that appears on our website www.theswami.com.


PinnacleSports is the Internet’s largest
sports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries worldwide.
Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce
reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up
to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low
minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web,
PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing
consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the
quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the
company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino
gaming.







March 14 2006
Bonus March Article.."Remember Pinnacle is the only offshore I wager at because it is the only one I trust." Donn Wagner..log onto their outstanding website directly though theswami.com and begin to experience the best odds and the best sportsbook in the world today.
Below is an article wriiten by one of Pinnacle's outstanding staff members, Simin Noble.
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble

With March Madness upon us, millions will be completing tournament
brackets for entertainment or profit. The first 32 games are the easiest
of the batch to analyze. Knowing nothing at all about the teams, you can
look at the spreads for each game at PinnacleSports.com to get an idea of
the likely outcome of each game.

Occasionally you’ll find a lower seed that is favored to beat a higher
seed, giving you a clear advantage over others in your office pool that
are not considering the spreads. For example, #7 California is a 1.5 point
underdog to #10 N.C. State. Players who are unaware of the spread are more
likely to select California than N.C. State because of the seeding,
despite the market’s confidence in N.C. State.

While we have written about the “Pinnacle Lean” in the past, using the
spreads at Pinnacle Sportsbook can help you get a feel for the strength of
each team in the NCAA tournament. One way to use these is to identify
“vulnerable” teams – ones that are favored to win by less than 2 points or
are an outright underdog. If you’re competing in a pool, you generally do
not want to select the winner of that game to advance past the next round.


For example, in the Atlanta region, #5 Syracuse is a 1-point favorite over
#12 Texas A&M. The winner of that matchup plays the winner of #4 LSU
(-6.5) vs. #13 Iona. Regardless of whether you think Syracuse or Texas A&M
will win, either team has a substantial chance of being eliminated. If you
pick LSU to beat Iona, it makes sense to go with LSU again against the
Syracuse/A&M winner, since LSU is considered more likely to advance to
the next round based on their odds to win the tournament. At the time of
writing, LSU is 36/1, Syracuse is 70/1 and Texas A&M is a 200/1 long shot
to win the tourney at Pinnacle Sportsbetting.

Which teams are most likely to under-perform in the first several rounds?
In the Atlanta region, #7 California faces a very real chance of being
eliminated in the first round. If the first round games are worth 1 point
(as in many office pools), you can determine the expected value (EV) of
each selection by looking at the Pinnacle Sports Betting moneyline on that
game. In the N.C. State/California game, N.C. State is a -123 favorite,
while California is a +113 underdog. Since Pinnacle Sports only uses a
10-cent line, the no-vig line on this game is N.C. State -118. These
markets are deadly accurate and can be used to estimate the chances of
each team winning.

For a favorite, the chance of it winning is (ML/ML-100). In this case, it
would be (-118/-118-100) = (-118/-218) = 54.1%. If you select N.C. State,
your bracket EV is 0.54 points for that selection. Cal would be worth 0.46
points. In this case, using spreads and moneylines to help you make your
bracket picks added 0.08 points of EV. If you felt lucky and picked
California anyway, you would certainly want to fade them in the next
match-up, as each subsequent round you picked them would cost EV in your
bracket.

The key to being successful in an office pool or bracket contest is to
find “bargain” teams to back advancing to the Sweet 16 or further.
Considered by many as a potential sleeper in this year’s tournament is
Kansas who is a current 6.5-point favorite in its match-up against
Bradley. While no one will be surprised by a first round Kansas win, the
real value of Kansas comes from its likely second round game against the
winner of #5 Pittsburgh vs. #12 Kent State. The most likely match-up is
Kansas-Pittsburgh and both teams finished with similar records at 25-7 and
24-7, respectively. A differentiator between the two teams is that Kansas
found its form towards the end of the season, winning 9 of its last 10
regular season games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has headed in the opposite
direction, losing 5 of its last 10 games. While many people won’t be
surprised by a #4 seed advancing to the Sweet 16 (after all, every #4
would make it if there are no upsets), understanding this match-up helps
you avoid picking the ‘upset’.

Another bargain team to take a close look at is North Carolina – an
11.5-point favorite in their opener against Murray State. The victor will
advance to face the winner of the Michigan State-George Mason game. One
method of estimating lines for subsequent games is to compare Sagarin
ratings. North Carolina’s rating is a full 7 points higher than either
possible opponent, suggesting they have a very good chance of making the
Sweet 16. North Carolina is another prime example of a team you likely
don’t want to fade in the first two rounds.

Going one round further, North Carolina’s most likely opponent in the
third round would be Tennessee (although early action at Pinnacle Sports
suggests they could struggle in their opening game against Winthrop). Even
in this hypothetical match-up, the Tar Heels would be a 5-point favorite.
While no game outcome is certain, successful bracket players are always
looking for ways to gain small advantages. Understanding North Carolina’s
match-ups might help to give you the edge.

While you consider these tips for completing your NCAA tournament bracket,
you may want to consider how the players been betting on the NCAA
tournament to help you pick your national champion.


Xavier (+5 -106) vs. Gonzaga

This game looked like it had the potential to be a classic Sharps vs. the
public battle and it hasn't disappointed. At the Pinnacle Sportsbook we
opened the game at Gonzaga -3 where it was fiercely and ferociously bet up
to Gonzaga -6 ½ by the public. Since then, we have seen opposition from
sharp money which has steadily pushed the line on the game back down to
Gonzaga -5 where it has now settled. If early indications are anything to
go by, we fully anticipate this match-up to be the most heavily bet game
in the entire first round.

Davidson (+9.5 -105) vs. Ohio St.

We opened the line on this game Ohio State -13 and it was quickly bet down
to -11.5. Since then we have seen the number steadily fall with unopposed
sharp money facing little resistance from the public as the line now sits
at -9 1/2. We anticipate public money will come in on Ohio St. in single
digits as post draws nearer. Thus far however, the Buckeye’s game has seen
the most powerful wave of one way money and suggests that professionals
feel #15 Davidson has a legitimate shot against the Big Ten regular season
champions.

NC State (-1.5 -103) vs. California

In what could be considered a metaphor for what a traditional March
Madness game is all about, this game has flip-flopped a half dozen times
already. We opened California as a 1.5 point favorite which quickly
shortened to 1. Since then there has been a prolonged duel with favoritism
changing amid heavy wiseguy trading on both sides. It does look however
that NC State has prevailed - for the time being at least - with the line
settling with the Wolfpack as a 1.5 point favorite.


NCAA Tournament Winner Odds

UConn is a heavy public favorite. The Huskies initially opened at +315 and
pre-selection trading drove them down to +250 to win the tourney. After
the selections were announced, UConn money dried up (possibly due to North
Carolina also being in the Washington region) and the price drifted back
to +294.

Kansas was also heavily traded, especially after selections were
announced. We initially offered them at +3500, but post-selection action
from sharps quickly drove it down to +1762.

Although Duke won the ACC tournament, players have been slow to back them.
The Blue Devils opened at +350 , drifting up to +412 before the conference
championships. After winning their tournament, Duke continued to move up
to +491. This might be in part to a strong #2 seed in Texas being placed
with Duke in the Atlanta Region.

Villanova poses an unusual challenge for bettors with the uncertainty of
Allan Ray, who averaged 18.8 points per game for the Wildcats. In the Big
East tournament, Ray appeared to suffer a serious eye injury although it
turned out to be much less serious. Players have been reluctant to back
Villanova despite Ray being cleared to play. Villanova opened at +940 and
has drifted to + 915 in moderate trading.


Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting

Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds
on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and
online poker.

With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet
betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting
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The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now
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MARCH 2006
Mr Swami
Please give us a few teams whose head coach has had great pointspread success in the month of March.Bob Mease NY
Bob:
WVU's John Bellein is 14-5 at WVU and is overall 24-11 against the spread in March. Look for him again to do nicely in the Big East tournament and NCAA's. Leonard Hamilton at Florida State is 9-3 as a seminole and 17-7 including this time at Miami FL . Play Hamilton each time he is an underdog in March for $300 and a favorite for $200.Play Bellein for $200 each game he is an underdog also. If WVU is favored back off to only $100.
Good luck with this simple but impacting mini-March Madness Strategy.


FEBURARY 2006 Happy Valentine's Day..Make your reservations now..if you wait until the 14th all good spots will be filled..be romantic and your love will reward you many times..The Swami has spoken...
This Sunday, February 5th, Super Bowl XXXIX will be played. It is hard for me to believe that it was 40 years ago Green Bay defeated KC 35-10 in the first NFL Final Championship contest. It was not called the Super Bowl until 1969 when the Jets upset Baltimore 16-7 in Miami, Florida. I can still recall I lost $6 on that game. I bet through a book and laid 6 to 5.
Many of you recently have sent me questions via e-mail and letters about the Super Bowl and my thoughts about the game. So in this issue I will take time and respond to your inquiries.
Mr Wagner I enjoy listening to your radio show each Thursday evening on KDWN. (8:30 PCT). I would like to know how many times I would have the pointspread winner of the Super Bowl if I just bet the team that won straight up? Personally I ignore the spread and just bet the team I think will win. I have done this since 1995 and I am ahead of the game. How would I have done if I did this since these Super Bowls had started?
Eric M .AZ
Eric, In the last 10 years the team that won the game straight up also covered the spread. The Dog has won straight up 3 of those times. If we look at the results all the way back to 1967, the actual straight up winner has also covered the pointspread all but 7 times. That is a good thing to know coming into Super Bowl XXXIX. My feeling is if you like Seattle play the money line and get back 170 for every 100. If you like the Steelers lay the 4 or whatever the line is on Sunday and risk 104 to win 100 if you are playing at Pinnacle. Go to my website www.theswami.com and link directly to Pinnacle if you haven't already done that. They have the lowest odds and the best odds for sports gaming I am know...and they take 6 figure wagers and when you win they pay quickly and politely. Probably over 500 players I have recommended Pinnacle to and I am proud to say not one negative comment from all the players I have guided their way. People appreciate honesty and recognize excellence.
Mr. Swami, I will never forget Super Bowl XXVII. That was the game you had a strong play on Dallas (-10.5) vs Buffalo. You in detail on your radio show (KDWN) told your listeners that Dallas would fall behind by a touchdown in the first half. You also stated they would shut out the Bills in the second half and win 31-13. You missed the actual score by just 1 point as Dallas rallied back from a 13-6 halftime deficient and won 30-13. My question is really a request. Would you do that again this season just for old times. Give your analysis and prediction on the radio show? Win/lose or draw I know your followers would appreciate your candid account of Super Bowl XXXIX .Simon G, NY. Simon
Simon, I will do that. My final show for 2005-2006 airs Thursday February 1, I will
be sure to mention your request and I will give my quarter by quarter prediction and the final score. I will also record my SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS breakdown and projected final score on our Handicapper's Report Card 800 line 1-800-679-4445 on extension 8 for all readers to receive on Sunday February 5th after 1pm EST. As you probably know I had not done it before or since that memorable show in 1994.
Ole Great Swami, in recent years how have the totals broken down on the Super Bowl. I hate under plays and love to play the overs. I am not sure but I believe the overs are way ahead. Could you please research the data and e-mail me the breakdown? Paul T., FL
Paul, the last 10 years the overs are up 7-3. The last 15 contests the overs are dominating 11 to 4. Since it all started back in 1967 however the breakdown is: 20 overs to 19 unders. In the 11 previously played Super Bowls in a dome the totals show 5 overs to 6 unders. When the number has been 47 to 48 the unders hold the edge 4 to 3.
Mr Wagner, since the 2005-2006 Super Bowl line is moving around between 3.5 and 4 at the time I am e-mailing you, I would like to know how many previous Super Bowls had a line around 3.5 and how the favorites did compared to the dogs. Harrison H GA.
Harrison, 13 times the line on the Super Bowl has fallen between 1 and 4.5. In these 13 situations the team that won the game straight up also covered the spread for a perfect (13-0). The dog has won 6 of these contests outright.
Below are listed the 13 games, the lines and final scores:
1971 …. Baltimore (+2.5) 16 Dallas 13
1973…..Miami (+1.5) 14 Washington 7
1975…..Pittsburgh (-3) 16 Minnesota 6
1977…..Oakland (-4.5) 32 Minnesota 14
1979…..Pittsburgh (-3.5) 35 Dallas 31
1981…..Oakland (+3) 27 Philadelphia 10
1982…..San Francisco (-1) 26 Cincinnati 21
1983…..Washington (+3) 27 Miami 17
1984….. LA Raiders (+3) 38 Washington 9
1985…..San Francisco (-3.5) 38 Miami 16
1988…..Washington (+3) 42 Denver 10
2001…..Baltimore (-3) 34 New York Giants 7
2003…..Tampa Bay (+4) 48 Oakland 21

.



January 2006 Happy New Year....
Ole Great Swami:
Question:....When you handicap a college bowl game, what do you feel is the most important variable in determining who is going to win? James Glunt, VA.
Response....James it is difficult to narrow down the 21 factors I look at before releasing a bowl selection, but I will tell you this..."All the talent and all the horses can't put a bowl team together when they are not motivated. Most of the teams playing in bowl games want to be there and they really come away with a wonderful experience. However each bowl campaign there are 3 or 4 teams that simply do not want to play the bowl game. The reasons they do not what to play will range from just being exhausted and tried from all the games to the bowl's ranking or location. The saying here is so true.."You can take a horse to the water but you can't make him drink..I will revise this saying a little for you Mr Glunt. "You can take a football team to a bowl game but you can't make them play." A perfect example of this was last season (2004) when Notre Dame lost their final season contest and opportunity to go to a major bowl and had their coach fired.They just simply wanted to go home for the holidays. The university wanted the money and the players to go a bowl game so they took a vote. Only 68% of the players wanted to go and out of that number only 45% of the senior class voted to play in the bowl. Without the senior leadership the Irish embarrassed themselves as they got manhandled by their opponent in a bowl game because they really didn't want to play. However the University did cash its check after the bowl was played. College football is big business and don't you ever forget that.
Enjoy the remaining bowl games and have a healthy and prosperous New Year.


DECEMBER 2005
Mr Swami
Question:....What do you feel is the easiest thing to beat in sports gambling during the month of December? Charlie K Pittsburgh, Pa
Response....Charlie, that is an easy question. College basketball and I will even go as far as to say college totals. Pinnacle posts a total on every game basketball game. That is the sweetest secret in gambling. 95% of gamblers have never played a college total and that is awesome with me. Most people's books will not even give them the numbers. Grab a few bucks go to my website's home page and open an account today at Pinnacle. You don't have to play them but you have the chance every day to have 2 ot 3 totals that are awesome to play. How do you think Doc Westwood, The Insiders and Dataman are hitting 70% plus in college hoops? They are playing totals in college and making a bundle for themselves and their clients. Since I see their plays every day on my desk I am playing their plays also and learning a great deal about how to beat the college ranks with total action. Until next month Play San Jose State under everytime they are on the road this month. Do this until you loss twice in a row. I bet you win a few dollars. Start Dec 3 Saturday night.
November 2005
Question....Donn I need your help. I am a small player ($50 to $100 a game) I am down $3500 on my own action already this season. I need to get professional assistance. What advise can you give. I want to win this season. What do I need to do? Morgan T NJ.
Response...."Morgan, first I need to know a few things. How much money do you still have that you are willing to risk. This money cannot be family funds or money you need for anything. This needs to be "Funny Money" that you realize could be lost?"
Morgan told me in our phone conservation that he had $3000 left to risk.
Knowing this I created a gambling strategy for him. I told Morgan that our goal is win back only half of what he lost. I told him to forget the money he lost. That is history and it cannot be undone. We will still play $50 and $100 on a game.
I told him he needed to use a handicapper from my system (The Handicapper's Report Card) that is not expensive and that gives a nice number of selections and of course is a solid handicapper. I selected The Stat Report from the $30 line to be the handicapper of choice. The Stat Report has been on our system for over 15 years and is a solid college capper, who also is an excellent NFL handicapper. He usually gives 3 to 5 plays a day on Saturday and Sunday.
I told Morgan in order to keep his overhead down that we would only play on Saturday and Sunday. This way he will be sending $60 a week for his selections. I told Morgan our goal is to win $1500 between now Oct 25 and Dec 4. Once we achieve our goal we will increase our wagers to $75 and $150 since we will then have $4500 in our bankroll if our initial goal is reached.
Time will tell if this works out for him. If nothing else we have him in a structured program and I personally feel he will be much better off following The Stat Report's program than his own.


October 2005
Question:....Donn I have a question about October handicapping. I loved your article about September football coaching in your most recent publication you sent me. As I write to you the plays you suggested are (8-2).Do you have any good October insight for me?..A loyal baseball Grandslam client since 1989 (Bob L. Kentucky).
Response.....Bob, Tom O'Brien of Boston College, Mike O'Riley of Oregon State and Rice's Ken Hatfield have combined for a 57-27 mark in October. Look for these 3 again to win money for you in October of 2005.

September 2005
Mr Swami
You are the guy who seems to know all the stats.Give me some "HOT" NFL stats for 2005.
Paul Bruno NY
P.S.I love your radio show from Vegas and especially your weekly pick.(you can listen each week at Thursday 8:80 Pac directly from my website to KDWN...you can also go back and listen to shows from the archives at kdwn.com )
Paul
Try these NFL stats on for size:
Over the last 5 years (2004-2000)
1.) What NFL has the best pointspread record at home?
2.) What team has the worse NFL record at home?
3.) What NFL has the worse NFL road record?
4.) What NFL team has the best road record?
5.) What NFL team is (15-6) as an underdog the last 5 seasons?
Answers are on tape at 1-800-679-4445 extension 7 right now.

August 2005
What program do you feel is the best in football? Chamberlin Foust, ME
Mr Foust I really believe year in and year out my False Favorites are the best value and best program. I would couple them with my Alleghenies Analysis rated plays to complete the deal. Since 1985 these 2 programs have never had a combined losing season. The last 11 have been monitored and documented...all wiiners. Since 1995 the 2 programs have amassed over $132,000 in profits alone..Call 1-800-553-3483 and enroll today and save over $1000 on the Early Bird Special.
*** THE HISTORICAL BREAKDOWN OF THE DOUBLE THREAT...which consists of both Wagner's False Favorites and his Alleghenies Analysis selections.
1995-1996 thru 2004-2005

$$$ PROFITS OF OVER $134,000 and 11 out of 11 straight winning seasons when these 2 impacting programs have been paired up together.
Call 1-800-553-3483 and enroll today and receive both programs for the entire 2005-2006 for only $3000.Price goes back to $4000 Aug 5th.

Our 1st play for 2005 goes August 6-7th

2005-2006
The Double Threat: coming soon

2004-2005
The Double Threat +$11,550
FF Plays (67-45) + $19,600 AA Plays (66-75) -$8050
2003-2004
The Double Threat +$3,750
FF Plays (61-45) + $5860 AA Plays (70-57) -$2,110
2002-2003
The Double Threat +$2800
FF Plays (46-39) + $700 AA Plays(78-60) +$2,100
2001-2002
The Double Threat +$31,720
FF Plays (62-39) + $19,000 AA Plays (83-56) + $12,720
2000-2001
The Double Threat +$31,840
FF Plays (62-39) + $21,100 AA Plays(109-89) + $10,740
1999-2000
The Double Threat +$16,780
FF Plays (36-25) + $8,500 AA Plays(103-86) + $8280
1998-1999
The Double Threat +$17,450
FF Plays (45-30) + $12,000 AA Plays(136-114) +$5,450
1997-1998
The Double Threat +$4,670
FF Plays (35-21) + $11,900 AA Plays (87-84) -$7,230
1996-1997
The Double Threat + $5,890
FF Plays (44-42) - $600 AA Plays (77-61) +$6,510
1995-1996
The Double Threat + $7,710
FF Plays (44-32) +8,800 AA Plays (113-105) -$1090


July 2005
Donn
My question is about baseball parlay wagering. Do you feel parlay wagering in baseball is an acceptable game plan? I listened to your show last week in Atlanta on Beating Baseball with a twist. I thought you covered many interesting points. I was extremely interested in your story about the bookmaker and baseball parlays.
Taylor Jackson

Taylor, your question about wagering on parlays in baseball is very vague. Let me share this with you. I do not like parlay wagering in most sports as a steady diet, however I do believe on an occassion it can be a smart play in any sport. Let me note a few baseball examples. I will often play a 160 or higher favorite with a live dog in baseball. This of course when only I like these 2 plays as seperate plays also. I try "never" to lay more than 150 on any baseball game when playing straight. However you can mix a heavy chalk play with a live dog play and still get the best of it.
Example Houston with Clemens is a 180 favorite and Pittsburgh is a nice plus 145 dog. I will wager a $500 parlay on these two if I have both plays. I will not release the Clemens play or play it straight because of the steep line, however I will toss it is very quickly with a nice combo dog play. Wagering $500 on these two positions will bring back a nice return of $1400 if I hit. I also like taking 2 dogs in a parlay. Bookmakers do not like winning handicappers to play parlays. I know this for a fact. A parlay player can really hurt a bookmaker if he gets "hot". I believe you have a much better chance in winning in baseball with parlays then any other sport. The best parlay baseball handicapper I know is a guy named The Fox. He lives in Atlanta and that was why I chose this topic for my show because he and I were just playing golf before I went on the talk show. I am trying to get him to become part of The Handicapper's Report Card/Scoreboard this summer. If he comes aboard it will interesting to see if he can make a steady profit.
be well
Donn Wagner
June 2005

Dear Mr. Wagner,
I am a new Grand Slam Club client this season. I have never bet baseball until this season. I have been a long time False Favorite client in football and I am enjoying the summer expereince but I have a question. I have noticed often after you give out one of your stronger (Full) Slammers the lines seem to move quickly. I play only at Pinnacle so I have no other options to compare lines. I am sure you have many clients that use Pinnacle since that is who you reccommend. My first question is: "Is there a situation when a line move will turn a play into a "no play situtaion?"
Paul M OK

Paul,
If you call and get your information and play my plays within 45 minutes after I release them I feel you will be OK with the lines and plays. Yes, the lines can move and often they do on my plays. Baseball does not have the huge betting volume of football so a baseball line can move quickly. I probably need to address this situation a little more closely than I do. I often believe a play is a play and I do not mention a line because I do not want to create doubt in my clients minds. Let me give you an example: I release Boston plus 110 as a Full Grandslam Club Play to you. You go on the net to bet my selection and Pinnacle has Boston minus 115. You will maybe not bet it because it is a different line. You may wager less because you are not getting the same value or you may ignore the difference and play the game as planned. All these situations are different. If I release a play I want you and all my cleints to play it at the best line you can get. I also want you be smart. Experience and good judgement by you the player is important.
This week I saw a line move from 150 to 225 on Florida with Willis. That is a huge move. I did not have a play on the game but obviously many people liked the favorite. If Florida won the game, all their bettors collected a $100 bill no matter what they layed to win the bet. However if Florida lost, which they did, there was a great varience to what each lost on the play per $100 wager. Some lost $150 while others could have lost up to $225 for the same $100 wager...that is a huge difference...50% more on the play. I have always prevouisly ignored this situation in baseball with my clients and gave them free reign to do whatever they wished with my selections.
Paul I still feel in baseball if I go with a play, it is a solid choice and the line will be fine whatever you play it at. Sometimes you may get a liitle bonus and sometimes less but in the overall scheme of things the odds and results will even out. If I find that not to be true I will definitely change my philosophy on that. In closing I would say to wait to play my selections is a mistake. I tend to be on more games that the line moves with me then against after I release the play. I believe this is because of many reasons but the main one meaning that it is the smart side and hopefully the "right side."

May 2005

Who is a horse to watch in the Derby?
Paul B. Arkansas

Paul,
Seven horses qualify under my speed factors and improvement variables as possible Derby winners.

They are:
Afleet Alex
Flower Alley
Greater Good
Wilko
Giacomo
Buzzard Bay
Greel's Galaxy
You can bet one of these will win the Derby if Spanish Chesnut runs on Derby Saturday...

Swami

Sign up for my Triple Crown Package only $395..17 out of the last 20 years it has been a money maker...


April 2005

Dear Swami,
I am presently an Alleghenies Analysis basketball full season client. I have been very pleased with your program. I signed up right after The Super Bowl and I believe we have won money every week but 2. My question is now do you determine a play is a play. You seem very selective, but every once in a while will fire out 4 plays in one day. Can you tell me what it is that puts a play over the top for you. Also how can one play be worth $500 and another $1000. You seem to be able to manage that part also.
AMAZED AMOUS from Vineland,NJ

Amazed Amos,
I will frequently key in on certain teams and games. Some just naturally set up for a possible play for me. If the line is fair on the game and has not been inflated I will release the team I like. Line value becomes a key issue when the final decision is maded to go with the play. If I feel the line is off by more than 3 points it is a 3 Star($500 Play)..if it is off by 6 or 7 I will release a 4 Star( $1000 play)..if it is off by anticipated line by 10 or more I will hit the game as a Top Play ($1500 or $2000. Final Note in every game I look at I am playing one team only..if it qualifies I will play it..The Line will not make be switch from one team to another. Example: I like Team A to win by 14...Vegas posts Team A by 7. If I believe Team A is definitely the right side I will pass on the game. I often evaluate the game again and find I may have been to conservative on my first analysis.

Number of plays is just a feel for me. I do not like to give more than 2 plays out in NBA for my Alleghneies program. I believe the NBA lines are too tight to beat regularly with alot of action. So I like to release 3 to 5 NBA plays a week. In college I am more agressive for many reasons. I will go with 10 plays a week and not blink.


March 2005

Dear Mr. Wagner,
What do you feel is the most important variable a team coming into the NCAA tournament must have to be a solid contender? George McCall WA.
George, I could respond to your question in length but the simple answer is defense. Many key factors but I really believe if a team can play in your face defense they can often beat a better team. Team's with "HOT" shooters and awesome offenses are eye catching but when push comes to shove the concept of great defense emerges and the individual steps back. If teams are going to play 4 or 5 games against tough competition they will have good shooting nights and poor shooting nights but if the defense is solid they just may end up in the Final 4. Also defense also sets up your offense is many caess..Don't forget to Call our 1-800-679-4445 number for a daily FREE PLAY..the number will be changing to a 714 number soon..Pinnacle has sponsored the line for over 3 years..the daily costs of maintaining the 800 line because of the Call volume has jumped tremendously so we will be forced to change the number to a 714 number and shorten the messages to one minute or less. We also also considering a prepaid 800 number for 800 clients and maintaining the same format.

Feb 2005

Name 3 teams that you feel will be money-makers for the rest of the college basketball season? Paul T Okla

Paul,
I will not give the farm away here but I will share with you one team that I feel will be a solid team to play on during the month of Feburary.
Bet against Michigan starting with their contest on Feb 2 and all the way through this month. Their loss at Purdue yesterday is a sign there is something wrong in Wolverine Country. Too many injuries and too many unhappy players and too much discipline. Losing breeds problems and the boys from Michigan will have them this month. If Michigan covers 2 straight stop playing against them...

January 2005

Mr. Swami,
I have been a client of yours since 1990. Last year during the bowl games you shined again and we made money for the 8th straight season and I believe 12th out of the 14th seasons I have been with you...however the playoffs were a disaster. You lost 4 of 5 4-Star plays and for the first time ever a strong 4.5 Star on the Super Bowl on New England. I stepped out pretty good on that play. We should have won it and yes you had the right side but it LOST!!!! My Question is how should I play your bowl games and playoff selections this season?
Last year you were #1 in NFL and had that poor playoff period...this year you have struggled in college and have been terrible in the NFL so far. (Question has written on Dec 4)?
Morrison

Dear Morrison,
Nothing has changed. Yes 2004-2005 NFL Playoffs stunk. But I will analyze the data and teams and make my predictions with the same confidence that I have for 35 years. I am not a cocky person. I am a professional. I always expect the worse and hope for the best. That Philosophy was handed down from my parents long ago. If you apply that strategy to your life you will never be surprised in a negative way. I try not to over react to anything. I must admit sometimes it is hard...but I try. Play the games with the same ratings I give you. Do not play college bowls for more because of my continued success and do not back off my playoff picks.
The key to a successful sports handicapper is doing your work and having the confidence to stand behind it. I do not ask you to do anything I haven't done already. I bet my plays probably for allot more than most of my clients. So I know how poorly I do when I lose and how well things are going when we are winning. Straight ahead with confidence but always have enough money in your pocket to pay for the losers.... Morrison we will expect the worse and hope for the best.... my many years of success gives me confidence but I know I must prove myself to you and all my clients again this year... Happy Holidays and be well...
DW


Nov/Dec Question

Mr. Wagner,
I am a client who spends $2000 to $3000 with you each month. Can you please tell me how you determine the line for The Handicapper's Scoreboard/Report Card plays? I like buying